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TV 247 e Real News, com Brian Mier – Telegram derrubou governador de Porto Rico. E no Brasil?



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they are mental control it proconsul Yoruba Velma federal stubbornly dances sobre Elia diminuendo poder de voto no Segundo reportage genomics ministry Rafael Correa Ecuador follow the real news so Bruno impress Mo Kio fme esta fazendo per quod or dis necessary oboz' Comanche Preciado comedy scoop up at this montar or todos Gonski forum faith to the Rancho Guevara leukorrhea se Lenin Moreno Elm a meteor answer forum Cavallo Troy AG false we square the que toma Posse the poi super head at this Montano total in survey komova visa progeny tambien para tomar cuidado kg token famous person Hado aquino brazil também antonio spare key versus goal as a program immutable message of Altona brazil yuma brass oprah todos a todos vocês despite having a mandate from the people who will acted me democratically today I feel that continuing in this position presents insurmountable difficulties I announce to you today that I'll be resigning as government effective Friday 2nd of August welcome to the real news network I'm Greg wilpert in Baltimore what were you just saw was Puerto Rico's governor ricardo rosado announcing his resignation following almost two weeks of massive protests that mobilized hundreds of thousands of Puerto Ricans froyo had made the announcement shortly before midnight on Wednesday the movement against him had gathered momentum after poor the Puerto Rican center for investigative journalism published a series of text messages that her CEO exchanged with his inner circle in which they made disparaging homophobic and sexist comments against fellow Puerto Ricans but those messages were only the latest scandal involving the governor corruption allegations and mismanagement had already been plaguing his tenure for weeks before that here's what some of the protesters had to say after Brazil made his resignation announcement it's a bit late but he finally did it we're celebrating with super happy the people can do it when they unite after my life I've been waiting for this [Applause] joining me now to discuss the current situation in Puerto Rico is Jose Caravaggio Cueto he is an economist and associate professor of statistics and finance at the University of Puerto Rico in Calle thanks Jose for joining us today thanks for you so let's start with your impressions of what the protesters had achieved at all say use a resignation how significant is this and what does it mean for Puerto Rico now is a landmark for the first time in our history and perhaps for the first time in many parts of the world especially not in America a Pacific protest remove an elected governor out of power so I think there's a great achievement I think there's a landmark actually in our history and I think it's going to bring some stability because he was a distraction he was bringing in stability for institutions and we need secure institution in order to perform the economic policies that we need I think that was a good achievement last night and I look forward to the next phase of waiting in order to reach a movie now Puerto Rico's Secretary of Justice Wonder Vasquez is assumed to take over for Rosalia once he's gone and on August 2nd now will her taking over change anything and will there be early elections for governor or will she remain for the rest of her sales term which actually doesn't end until January 2021 well the second step we have to make sure we make it well the constitution of Puerto Rico says that the person that shall take into power in case of the government resignation is a secretary of state but they resigned two weeks ago so the third person will be the Secretary of Justice but just today we have another lake with an old shaft that involve the Secretary of Justice and I'm not sure that that person is going to bring the stability domine my suggestion is done a all the parties involved especially all the centers and all the political parties look for a person of consensus that can actually get us to the next year and I just start going to be held on uh next year so I know there are many people that can do that transition but we have to make sure that we look for them now one of the issues that Puerto Rico has been struggling with for a long time is its status as a US tour territory which really should be called a colony since it's part of the US but has no power in the federal government now do you think that this protest member movement and the governor's resignation will advance the cause for democracy in Puerto Rico how do you see that development playing out now after his resignation to sign of the coins right now in the Straits for the first time in a long time they are demanding more democracy they want to clean the house one there one zero corruption in the government and they are demanding the board was imposed by Congress three years ago to go as well with Rosario to the US and they are somehow some actually some newspapers such as the New York Times and The Washington Post are also on demanding to give more power to this fiscal control core so that they make sure that they take the control of everything especially all the political situations to make sure that the policies that they want to execute can take place I think those two sides of the coin are going to be struggling in the next week I hope this is of people of Puerto Rico and dirty mess or the one that are finally now related of course to the political situation and you really touched on it is and perhaps even more complicated is the issue of Puerto Rico's economy now how do you see Puerto Rico's economic future following the promesa Act of 2016 and a near default on its debt it has this financial oversight management board that you mentioned which is not controlled really by Puerto Ricans but by the US government what does this mean for Puerto Rico and is there any chance that people will now after this victory of forcing the governor's resignation mobile that they will mobilize against this state of affairs now that they've achieved this resignation yes protests are going to affect the plan of adjustment that the poor was planned to present to the poor in these days the plan of adjustment of the central core and then he has the agreement of all the deaths that the central government had and both say yo and the Facebook or throw ball has certain agreements on how to present that plan of adjustments of the judge so right now this new government is in office and we have to say what are their orientation so I hope that at the end Rico win with this and we can look for barrel temporary means that the one that the previous government reached with the creditors specially with bump over tell us a little bit more about the plan justment plan that you mentioned I mean what would it mean if it were implemented and you know this is something we've covered before with Mark Weisbrot for example of the Center for Economic and Policy Research but I just want to get your take on what this adjustment plan would mean if it were to be implemented for Puerto Rico to implement along with the rest of your administration was includes pension cuts it includes to generous agreement with bond holders and they don't actually look at it depth that was later on disappears the label are the debt they of course they some statements in the president there are some tensed are going to be little birthday but they're at the same time they are negotiating with those bondholders I think we have to make sure that we don't negotiate any little bit and the second thing that we need to make sure is that we find sustainable payments so that in three or four years we are not in another round of restructuring I'm assured giving generous agreement with bond holders are going to prevent that and what about the possibility of a debt forgiveness I mean that has been mentioned by some people but obviously the federal government is not willing to support that but don't you think that that might be the could be pushing for here okay Maria when the board deal was to double the payments in the fiscal plan the debt payments so if we compare as I did the fiscal plan before Maria with the fiscal plan after Maria what the board did was to double the pain is because they are say all the world is going to have more money now because with what is going to serve a large reconstruction and that is going to increase power revenue so yes those overall revenues to pay more debt and fermitas ridiculous because after a disaster you can obtain more debt and the one that you plan before the disaster so I hope that the new Power Lord is going to be power in the next month make a new fiscal plan and negotiate new terms with the board and they actually stick to the thing is that they say the word sustainable before Maria is not going to use Yuriko Maria's an excuse to bail out boulders okay well we're going to leave it there now but of course we're gonna continue to follow the situation in Puerto Rico I was speaking to her it was a Caravaggio Cueto economist an associate professor at the University of Puerto Rico thanks again Jose for having joined us today thank you and thank you for joining the real news network it's the real news network and I'm Greg wilpert in Baltimore protests against the economic policies of Ecuador's president Lenin Moreno have been going on all week in major cities throughout the country of Ecuador a broad coalition of social organizations including labor indigenous and campesino groups are declaring their opposition to a package of austerity measures that the moreno government is imposing on Ecuador since the beginning of this year these measures include tens of thousands of public sector layoffs health and education budget cutbacks and the elimination of gasoline and electricity subsidies in the works is also a labor market reform which would increase the workweek among other things president Lena Moreno began to implement many of these measures since the beginning of this year and they are part of a loan agreement that he struck with the International Monetary Fund last March for 4.2 billion dollars president Moreno originally ran as the hand-picked successor to President Rafael Correa who was part of Latin America's so-called pink tide of the 2000s Korea had associated himself closely with other left or center left governments in the region such as Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Brazil's Lula da Silva Moreno though shortly after his election in mid 2017 made a sharp break from Korea a kill accusing him of corruption and implementing a policy shift towards the right he also were through Julian Assange's asylum from the Ecuadorian Embassy in London joining me now to discuss the IMF loan and its likely consequences for Ecuador is Andres arouse he's a former director of the Central Bank of Ecuador and is currently a doctoral fellow in financial economics at the National Autonomous University of Mexico in Mexico City also he recently co-authored a book took a report together with Mark Weisbrot titled headwinds of growth the IMF program in Ecuador published this week by the Center for Economic and Policy Research thanks for joining us today Andres thank you for the invitation great so let's start with why Ecuador even went to the IMF why was it wasn't even necessary and if so why and if it wasn't necessary why not what do you think well the circumstances in which a quitter asked the IMF or alone are very strange usually in Latin America countries asked loans when they're in trouble in crisis conditions but in this case Ecuador was growing it had a positive real GDP growth it had a sufficient international reserves it had a stable balance of payment condition and the overall situation and the economy was not bad not to say it was excellent but it was not definitely a crisis condition or even recessionary and the political right in Ecuador had didn't had been with demanding and IMF agreement for the last five or six years even during the karev presidency because they said that and I am MF agreement would be the only thing that would sort of anchor the economic policy of Ecuador in the medium term so the true political objectives of seeking the IMF loan by the moreno government had nothing to do with the financial or economic situation but rather a policy orientation to anchor the political economy and economic policy of Ecuador for the next four to five years in what we can see a similar pattern that has been occurring in the other loans throughout Europe and in that in America as well so give us a brief summary of what the IMF loan agreement with Ecuador is like and what do you see for C as being the main consequences of its implementation for Ecuador okay so the IMF agreement I would call it deeply ideological it has a very specific obsessions even I would dare to call it with a restoring central bank independence we must recall that Ecuador's 2008 Constitution said resolved to take away the independence of the central bank and to make it part of the government's economic team the economic ministries so the IMF is clearly a focus on restoring the autonomy and independence to the central bank of Ecuador in order to give more leeway and more privileges to financial capital so to the bankers basically in that independence entails basically forbidding the central bank from granting loans to the central government the government it forbids the public financial sector which is fairly large in Ecuador to engaging with the government so it prohibits them to finance public investment and it also says that it must guarantee the private banks deposits at the central bank with public resources so basically institutionalizing a bailout mechanism within the ecuadorian financial economic structure this these are the main IMF institutional changes that requires certain economic policy orientations which basically imply a huge austerity package that would have consequences in Ecuador's real economy give us some more detail what kinds of consequences are we talking about I know your report talks about it disagrees with the IMF projections in terms of economic growth for example tell us about that and what other consequences do you see okay so we've titled the report headwinds to growth because it is a phrase that is recurrently being used by the IMF in the report when referring to their austerity package the IMF finally admits that their policy is the ones that are recommending as part of the conditionality agreement will have a negative impact on economic growth so that's why I either IMF's own admission and we review those projections and we say that even with those admissions the IMF is overly optimistic because they have some accounting mistakes in the projection so basically this will imply a growth in the unemployment rate for the next three years so 2019 2020 and 2021 unemployment rate is projected to increase also a poverty is a projected to increase likewise we have a massive 5% of GDP adjustment in terms of the fiscal austerity a package which implies basically that the Korean economy will have shrank by that amount is specifically geared towards most most of the population so basically a compacts in fuel subsidies which means that raising gas prices raising electricity prices a privatization of public assets including the national state-owned telecommunications company at the national state-owned largest bank that we have in Ecuador also a privatization of the electric companies and several hydropower power plants that were built in the last six years during the Korea presidency are also part of the package and of course raising the value-added tax from 12 to 16 percent that will have an overall impact in the national economy and that will restrict and reduce household consumption throughout really sounds like an all-out typical neoliberal economic program now what alternative economic policies do you think that Ecuador could have or should have implemented that would actually restore or create equitably could not economic growth in in the country well one of the things that surprised me most from the IMF report is a graph in the section called debt sustainability analysis where they show that had there not been the austerity package since last year that was implemented by the moreno government a Korra's economy would have grown between 5 to 8 percent annually so per year the IMF admits that if not if they hadn't applied this austerity package this neoliberal package the economy would have grown because that was the pace at which it was growing with a windfall oil from all prices and also the other thing is the moreno government pursued a tax amnesty that gave away about 1% of GDP to the largest transnational oil corporations that had evaded taxes in ecuador so if they needed the money and they could have just basically you know pursued normal tax collection strategies by optimizing the tax evasion from the transnational oil corporations we must recall that ecuador is a oil dependent economy about a third of all of its exports are oil exports measured in in monetary terms so it's it's a lot of money that could have been gotten that way now what was really needed to happen was continued public investments the Korea government left a development plan including public infrastructure program for the next 20 years so at least a part of that public infrastructure program could have continued and could have been financed with domestic liquidity that was available continues to be available and also with foreign partners from all over the world that were interested in financing the public infrastructure program that characterized Korea's government Wow this is really quite a turnaround for from Cori had to Moreno which we've reported on before here on the real news but we're going to leave it there for now I'm speaking to and race our house co-author of the super report headwinds to growth the IMF program in Ecuador thanks again memorize for having joined us today thank you very okay and thank you for joining the real news network

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