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Oscars 2016 Predictions & Frontrunners – Carol, Steve Jobs, The Danish Girl


As summer movie season begins to kick into
high gear, I thought it would be nice to take a look at another one of our favorite times
of the moviegoing year – awards season! And while this might SEEM like an incredibly early
look at the frontrunners, there’s becoming such a science to awards season that we actually
CAN predict the contenders this early on. Of course hopefully we might get a surprise
or two, but let’s break this down like the savvy awards season connoisseurs that we are…
Let’s start with the mini-distributors whose bread and butter is awards season, most notably
the King himself, Harvey Weinstein. Now – with the exception of Antoine Fuqua and Jake Gyllenhaal’s
Southpaw – a number of his films set for this year don’t have specific release dates so
some could find themselves pushed to 2016, but here’s what he’s got planned at the
moment. He’s got Quentin Tarantino’s new film, Hateful Eight, and Tarantino has proved
to be quite the Oscar darling as of late. However, Tarantino’s lucky charm Christoph
Waltz is actually appearing in Harvey’s long gestating project Tulip Fever, starring
Dane DeHaan and Alicia Vikander. Weinstein also has Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard’s
Macbeth, a cooking film with Bradley Cooper directed by August Osage County’s John Wells,
as well as a World War 2 drama starring his My Week with Marilyn star Michelle Williams.
But his strongest contender might be Carol, a Mad Men-esque period piece starring Cate
Blanchett, Rooney Mara, Sarah Paulson, and Kyle Chandler. Carol is based on Strangers
on a Train and The Talented Mr Ripley novelist Patricia Highsmith’s The Price of Salt,
and is Todd Haynes first film since 2007’s I’m Not There. Next up, let’s turn our
focus to…Focus Features! They’ve become a tad more commercial recently and at the
moment only seem to have two real awards contenders – but what contenders! Their trump card is
The Danish Girl, with recent Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne starring as one of the world’s
first transgender patients back in 1930s Germany. The King’s Speech and Les Mis director Tom
Hooper is at the helm here as well. Then they have Suffragette, the UK’s star-studded
film about the British movement to get the vote for women featuring Carey Mulligan, Helena
Bonham-Carter aaaand Meryl Streep. Now Fox Searchlight has a very competitive slate.
They landed Sundance sensation Me Earl and The Dying Girl, which hopes to follow in the
footsteps of previous Sundance splashes Fruitvale Station and especially Whiplash. Then Brooklyn
also has strong buzz, another 1950s period piece – this time focusing on Irish immigrants
in the famous New York City borough. Domhnall Gleeson, Saoirse Ronan, Jim Broadbent and
Julie Walters star. Far from the Madding Crowd, another Carey Mulligan picture, could also
be contender, and then there’s True Story. Now on the surface, True Story might not seem
like much, but all three of its leads – Jonah Hill, James Franco and Felicity Jones – are
Oscar nominees. And of course there’s Sony Pictures Classics, which will look to compete
with Mark Ruffalo’s Infinity Polar Bear as well as Woody Allen’s Irrational Man
starring Joaquin Phoenix and Emma Stone. Whew! And again, that’s just the specialty circuit!
The big studios have gotten pretty good at launching awards contenders themselves, and
this year will be no different. Warner Brothers has their Whitey Bulger bio Black Mass starring
Johnny Depp, Benedict Cumberbatch and Joel Edgerton. They also have Creed, the latest
entry in the Rocky franchise. Don’t forget the original Rocky was a huge Oscar winner,
plus Fruitvale Station’s Ryan Coogler and Michael B Jordan reteam here. Rush’s Ron
Howard and Chris Hemsworth also reteam for In The Heart of the Sea, and let’s see if
Warner Brothers does a better job getting them to the front of the pack than Universal
did with Rush. As for Universal, this year they’ve got just one contender, the Aaron
Sorkin scripted, Danny Boyle directed Steve Jobs movie starring Michael Fassbender and
Seth Rogen that they wrestled away from Sony – as exposed in all those leaked emails…
But Sony won’t enter awards season empty handed, as they still have Robert Zemeckis’
The Walk starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt, as well as the controversial NFL expose Concussion
starring Will Smith as real life whistle blower Dr Bennet Omalu. Meanwhile Fox will be sending
Matt Damon back to space just one year after Interstellar, as he stars in The Martian for
Ridley Scott. Interstellar’s Jessica Chastain also stars, with Ridley Scott directed a script
by Drew Goddard. Fox might actually be the most competitive of all the big studios this
year, as they also have the new David O Russell-Jennifer Lawrence movie Joy, as well as Alejandro Inarritu’s
follow up to Birdman, The Revenant, starring Leonardo DiCaprio and Tom Hardy. As for Disney
they hope to compete with another reteaming, this time a classic one, as Tom Hanks partners
with Steven Spielberg again for Bridge of Spies. And wait, there’s actually MORE!
Open Road, after a solid showing with Nightcrawler, will try to do even better this year with
Oliver Stone’s Snowden, also starring Joseph Gordon-Levitt as well as Shailene Woodley.
Then newbie distributor Bleecker Street will also try to enter the awards race with Trumbo,
starring Bryan Cranston as blacklisted screenwriter Dalton Trumbo. Helen Mirren, John Goodman
and Louis CK also star. And finally, FINALLY, Netflix – after so much success with television
at the Emmys and Golden Globes – will try to take on film and the Oscars with Beasts
of No Nation – the indie they acquired thanks to a big check, making huge headlines. But
we’ll see if the Idris Elba flick, directed by True Detective’s Cary Fukunaga, is shut
out during awards season just as theater owners plan to shut it out of multiplexes. SO, that’s
the expected Oscar lineup! Which films do you think are the strongest contenders? And
keep in mind The Academy is considering going back to just five nominations for Best Picture,
so this could get ugly. Write your thoughts down below. I’m Grace Randolph and this
has been a Movie Byte! You can watch more, right now!

99
Comments
  • I just hope that this year doesn't turn out to be a sweep for just two or three movies. Let's bring some variety to these awards.

  • Mad Max Fury Road should get a best picture nomination if there are 10 nominees this year. Does the academy want another The Dark Knight situation on their hands?

  • Why is no one talking about Legend with Tom Hardy as both Kray twins?? If the movie's as good as the teaser trailer I hope it does very well!

  • The Martian and The Revenant only films that interests me. my short attention span doesn't want me to watch slow pace "acting" movies

  • Matt Damon a Jessica Chastain starred in Interstelar and now also in The Martian. That´s big coincidence.

  • I'm predicting a Oscar win for Seth Rogen. He's really going to surprise a lot of people, and i have a feeling he will pull a win out of the left field

  • I think WB will have higher ratings on there movies this year. And next year they will be the highest in domestic and worldwide of 2016 box office

  • 5 best picture nominations.. It was really hard for the Academy to fill 10.. I'll give them that..

  • I think Carol and Danish Girl seem to be the biggest contenders so far. Trans and gay rights have been HUGE topics this past two years and we all know Hollywood likes to be political.

  • I hope Jennifer Lawrence gets nominated but I'm not sure whether she will win against the people this year.

  • I think your forgetting that Martin Scorsese movie with Andrew Garfield, Adam Driver, and Liam Neeson

  • There's a big film that you're overlooking here: Inside Out. The reviews from Cannes have been spectacular, it's Pixar going back to original concepts with Pixar alum Pete Docter directing (he did direct one of the other Pixar films that got nominated for Best Picture, Up), and having seen the film, I can safely say that I believe this will be regarded as Pixar's best films. I honestly don't see a scenario where it doesn't get a nomination unless the Oscars decide to go back to 5 nominees.

  • Stuff Grace failed to mention.

    Fox Searchlight- Youth (Dated for October) and Demolition (TBA 2015), and A Bigger Splash (Fall 2015)

    SPC – Son of Saul, Truth, and I Saw the Light. All confirmed for 2015

    Weinstein: Three Generations (Sept 2015)

    Lionsgate: Freeheld (October, SICARIO (September), Genius (Winter 2015)

    Disney: Star Wars (Has Avatar's release date), Inside Out (Pixar films like the are OscAr contenders), The Light Between Oceans

    Open Road: Spotlight (Dated October or Novemeber), Bleed for This

    Warner Bros: Our Brand is Crisis

    You missed many yet list stuff like True Story….

  • The sound in this video is much better than in many of your others. You have a very strong voice, the problem is that room reflections make it sound strident, to the point where the strident quality is a background annoyance. This video's sound doesn't have that and does justice to your voice.

  • Warner Bros will shoot on the foot if it does not promote Mad Max Fury Road which is more than just a great action movie , it is a great film period. It can also claim several awards: Best actress (Theron), Best Director (Miller), Cinematography (Seale) among others. Go MMFR go!

  • I was surprised Grace didn't mention Disney's The Finest Hours, which sounds like Oscar bait 1000 times over. However, this list seems larger than in past years, is that me being crazy?

  • Predictions for Best Director: 
    Steven Spielberg – Bridge Of Spies
    Alejandro Iñárritu – The Revenant
    Guillermo Del Toro – Crimson Peak
    Scott Cooper – Black Mass
    Oliver Stone – Snowden

    Possible Dark Horses: Ridley Scott (The Martian), Ryan Coogler (Creed), Ron Howard (In The Heart Of The Sea), David O. Russell (Joy) and Danny Boyle (Steve Jobs).

    Best Actor…
    Lead:
    Johnny Depp – Black Mass
    Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
    Idris Elba – Beast Of No Nation (PLEASE ACADEMY, DON'T IGNORE IT BECAUSE NETFLIX IS STUBBORN!)
    Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw
    Tom Hardy – Legend

    Supporting: 
    Benedict Cumberbatch – Black Mass (Second time's the charm!)
    Paul Giamatti – Straight Outta Compton
    Tom Hardy – The Revenant
    Sylvester Stallone – Creed (Hard to choose 5 and I'm an optimist)
    Forest Whitaker – Southpaw

    Possible Dark Horses: Tom Hanks (Bridge of Spies), Ian McKellen (Mr. Holmes), Eddie Redmayne [fuck him] (The Danish Girl), Tobey Maguire (Pawn Sacrifice), Michael Fassbender and Seth Rogen (Steve Jobs), Joseph Gordon-Levitt (Snowden or The Walk), Chris Hemsworth (In The Heart Of The Sea) and Will Smith (Concussion).

  • Grace, what about Joy, I think the roll is so important for Jennifer Lawrence because she is losing hunger games and needs to gain another franchise. I think she has a shot.

  • 2015 seems like it's going to end up being one of the more noteworthy years for movies as of late. My personal pick is The Revenant.

  • Grace, what do you think are the chances of Mad Max winning a prestige award? I'm thinking Best Director.

  • Honestly it's probably far fetched, but I'm really hoping that the Oscars give Mad Max some recognition. The cinematography, art direction, make-up, and visual effects were all superb.

  • I want to see the lady who did all of Black Widows stunts on age of ultron,winter soldier etc get an award…..i want to see the stunt people on mad max get some awards.
    Its about damn time

  • Hey Grace, I said this before and you're probably aware of it. But just as a future resource to help out your theories and awareness on what to expect for award season, you should check out GoldDerby. It treats all this competition like horse racing, there go the derby name. It's the most analytical driven, prediction community and just the best resource when it comes to this stuff. Good interviews as well. Just a helpful tip, even though you prob don't need it. Great vid.

  • me and earl and the dying (saw it an advanced screening) is a great film but i doubt it gets anywhere near as much love as Whiplash. maybe an adapted screenplay nod but thats it really

  • Grace, do you think that, come the airing of the awards, you could do a sort of check up on whether or not you accurately predicted the movies? Like for pre-awards, you can revisit this video and see which of the ones you listed actually were nominated. And for your post-awards video, you can see which ones won and compare that to your Oscar winners predictions video.

  • My top 5 predictions for 2016 Best Actor:
    1.) Leonardo Dicaprio-The Revenant
    2.) Johnny Depp-Black Mass
    3.) Eddie Redmayne-The Danish Girl
    4.) Michael Fassbender- Steve Jobs
    5.) Joseph-Gordon Levitt-The Walk

    My Top 5 for POSSIBLE Contenders:
    1.) Idris Elba-Beast With No Nation
    2.) Joseph-Gordon Levitt- Snowden
    3.) Michael B. Jordan-Creed
    4.) Jake Gyllenhaal-Demolition
    5.) Tom Hanks-Bridge of Spies

  • Now, My top 8 predictions for Best Picture:
    1.) The Revenant
    2.) Black Mass
    3.) Joy
    4.) The Danish Girl
    5.) The Walk
    6.) In The Heart of the Sea
    7.) The Martian
    8.) Bridge of Spies

  • And Lastly, My top 5 predictions for Best Actress:
    1.) Emily Blunt-Sicario
    2.) Natalie Portman-Jane Got A Gun
    3.) Charlize Theron-Dark Places
    4.) Jennifer Lawrence-Joy
    5.) Meryl Streep-Ricki and the Flash

  • This upcoming award season looks as lily white was always. There is only a smattering of the usual token faces you can expect to see, which is a few black male actors vying for that one spot available to them while their white colleagues fill out the roster. Non-black people of color and especially women of color continue to be intentionally excluded.

    Women of color will continue to discriminated against so long as Hollywood looks to a racist mainstream America to set the tone of who can be whom, and America and the west has so deftly exported it's anti-blackness that other global markets have no love for anything but select few of black male faces.

    What's more supporters of women in front of and behind the screen seem invested in advancing only white female talent and/or remaining willfully ignorant to the fact that black female movie talent had to fall back to TV to maintain even the semblance of an acting career and Asian and Latina talent doesn't have that.

    To say nothing about how in 2015 there is still no such thing as openly queer talent for Hollywood to passive aggressively overlook/ whitewash for queer parts the way they do with Asian talent.

  • Inside Out is actually getting mentioned regarding Best Picture a lot on Twitter (plus it has raving Cannes reviews.) If the Academy decides against reducing the number of nominees, Inside Out might just have it within itself to follow in the footsteps of Wall-E, UP, and Toy Story 3… but I'm holding out on that assumption until after I've seen it for myself.

  • Screw the oscars.. They messed up BAD this year, best actor and best animated movie were a joke. Seriously, big hero 6 winning best animated? It was like the 4th best movie out of all nominated. and only won because it was disney. anyways, I'll predict best animated movies:
    inside out
    the good dinosaur
    Kung fu panda 3 (if it makes the cut off which I doubt it.)
    the little prince
    the peanuts movie
    shaun the sheep
    marnie and me

  • Suffregete looks meaty and could be a good thing for best actress and supporting. Real event women fighting for equality and meryl!! Job done

  • The big studio pictures seem more interesting to me but maybe that's just because I can't get as much of a read on them. I think a lot of the smaller, quieter indies will get swept aside apart from maybe picking up acting nominations. Aside from the Jennifer Lawrence movie there's also almost a break down gender lines.

  • Considering how much presence anything LGBT has in the media these days, and only judging by the one picture of Eddie Redmayne – I'd bet money on that film getting Oscar noms.

  • My Oscar 2016 predictions- (WARNING: LONG LIST!!!!)

    Johnny Depp: Best Actor for ''Black Mass''

    Jessica Chastain: Best Actress for ''Crimson Peak''

    Jennifer Lawrence: Best Actress for ''Joy''

    Jake Gyllenhaal: Best Actor for ''Southpaw''

    Michael Fassbender: Best Actor for ''Steve Jobs''

    Eddie Redmayne: Best Actor for ''The Danish Girl''

    Bradley Cooper: Best Actor for ''Joy''

    Cate Blachett: Best Actress for ''Carol''

    Joaquin Phoenix: Best Actor For ''Irrational Man''

    Emma Stone: Best Supporting Actress for ''Irrational Man"

    Jason Statham: Best Supporting Actor for ''Spy'' (Just a funny prediction, don't expect it to happen)

    Matt Damon: Best Actor for ''The Martian''

    Helena Bohnam Carter: Best Supporting Actress for "Suffragette''

    Carey Mulligan: Best Actress for ''Suffragette''

    Meryl Streep: Best Actress for ''Ricki and the Flash'' (20 OSCAR NOMS!!!!)

    Leonardo DiCaprio: Best Actor for ''Revenant''

  • These are my predictions: (Probably I would change it after the results of Venice Festival, everyone can share their predictions)

    Best Picture:
    Brooklyn, Carol, Far From the Madding Crowd, Inside Out, Mad Max: Fury Road, Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, The End of the Tour, 45 Years

    Best Director:
    Andrew Haigh, Todd Haynes, John Crowley, George Miller, Peter Docter

    Best Leading Actor:
    Tom Courtnay, Michael Fassbender, Ian McKllen, Jason Segel, Michael Caine

    Best Leading Actress:
    Charlotte Rampling, Cate Blanchett, Rooney Mara, Blythe Danner, Emily Blunt

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Emory Cohen, Oscar Issac, Benicio del Toro, Jesse Eisenberg, Harvey Keitel

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Julie Walters, Cynthia Nixon, Marion Cotillard, Jane Fonda, Rachel Weisz

    Best Original Screenplay:
    Alex Garland, Paul Weitz, Bob Petersen & Peter Docter, Sean Baker & Chris Bergoch, Amy Schumer & Judd Apatow

    Best Adapted Screenplay:
    Nick Hornby, Phyllis Nagy, Jacob Koskoff & Todd Louiso, Donald Marguilles, Marielle Heller

  • im so fucking excited for the danish girl omg, i would recommend the book, its amazing, though i admit i havent finished it yet

  • (potential) Best Picture nominees

    Bridge of Spies
    Brooklyn
    Inside Out
    Joy
    Steve Jobs
    The Danish Girl
    The H8ful Eight
    The Renavent
    Trumbo

    Who knows. One of these movies I listed may not be nominated next year. This year, for some reason, they reduced the number count of Best Picture from 9 to 8. Maybe, they won't go brain-dead again, and bring the number count back to 9.

  • I don't know who else is going to be nominated but I can guarantee you that The Danish girl and The Revenant will be nominated

  • OSCAR 2016 – My predictions:

    ACTOR
    Michael Caine, "Youth"
    Don Cheadle, "Miles Ahead"
    Bryan Cranston, "Trumbo"
    Leonardo DiCaprio, "The Revenant" *
    Eddie Redmayne, "The Danish Girl"

    ACTRESS
    Cate Blanchett, "Carol"
    Emily Blunt, "Sicario"
    Carey Mulligan, "Suffragette"
    Charlotte Rampling, "45 Years"
    Lily Tomlin, "Grandma" *

    SUPP. ACTRESS
    Helena Bonham Carter, "Suffragette"
    Jane Fonda, "Youth"
    Jennifer Jason Leigh, "The Hateful Eight"
    Rooney Mara, "Carol" *
    Helen Mirren, "Trumbo"

    SUPP. ACTOR
    Idris Elba, "Beasts of No Nation" *
    John Goodman, "Trumbo"
    Tom Hardy, "The Revenant"
    Harvey Keitel, "Youth"
    Samuel L. Jackson, "The Hateful Eight"

  • My boy Jason Mitchell will win for Straight Outta Compton;-) Nah but foreal he was crazy good in that movie but he won't be nominated, that's for sure. The Academy doesn't like "Hood Movies." I think it will be to controversial if he would be nominated.
    I think the nominees will be Leo for The Revenant, Johnny for Black Mass, Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl, Michael Fassbender for Steve Jobs and Andrew Garfield for Silence. And I really think this time it will be Leo's turn to win because there are already to much pressure on The Academy that he hasn't won yet, so I think he will win.
    As for the Oscar for best actress I think it will go to my fellow Swedish citizen Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl.

  • Why most of the Oscar worthy good movies are released during the late months (September, October or November ) ?????

  • Best Actress nominations:
    1. Charlotte Rampling (45 Years) … SHOULD WIN
    2. Brie Larson (Room)
    3. Cate Blanchett (Carol)
    4. Saoirse Ronana (Brooklyn)
    5. Olivia Wilde (Meadowland)

  • Best Actor nominations:
    1. Leonardo DiCaprio (The Revenant)
    2. Abraham Attah (Beasts of No Nation) … A well-deserved nom
    3. Eddie Redmayne (The Danish Girl)
    4. Michael Fassbender (Steve Jobs)
    5. Johnny Depp (Black Mass)

  • Best Animated Feature:
    1. Anomalisa
    2. Inside Out
    3. April and the Twisted World
    4. The Good Dinosaur
    5. Shaun the Sheep (unless The Peanuts Movie is decent)

    Best Animated Short:
    World of Tomorrow — SUREFIRE WINNER

  • This year the Oscar for Best Actor in a leading role must go to Leonardo DiCaprio, he's role in "The Revenant" it's outstanding.

  • Best actor will either go to Eddie Redmayne or Michael Fassbender, not sure on which. Best actress will be either Saoirse Ronan or Alicia Vikander. The others will be bystanders!!

  • This list has completely fallen apart over the last few months. Only The Revenant, Bridge of Spies and Brooklyn are locks to be nominated.

  • MY OSCARS 2016 PREDICTION!
    Best Picture: THE REVENANT
    Best Director: Steven Spielberg – BRIDGE OF SPIES
    Best Actor: Johnny Depp – BLACK MASS
    Best Actress: Charlize Theron – MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
    Best Supporting Actor: Nicholas Hoult – MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
    Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter – SUFFRAGETTE
    Best Adapted Screenplay: THE REVENANT
    Best Original Screenplay: INSIDE OUT
    Best Cenimatography: THE REVENANT
    Best Art Direction: PAN
    Best Costume Design: CINDERELLA
    Best Film Editing: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
    Best Sound Editing: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
    Best Sound Mixing: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
    Best Visual Effects: STAR WARS: THE FORCE AWAKEN
    Best Original Score: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
    Best Make Up: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
    Best Song: 50 SHADES OF GREY "Love Me Like You Do"

  • So glad The Martian and Bridge Of Spies are the contenders they deserve to be. And sorry Grace, but as soon as I watched True Story in April, I knew immediately it was NOT going to be an Oscar contender. It's a pretty disappointing movie, which is a shame considering the cast actually gave good performances. And Snowden's now pushed to 2016 because the slate this year is already too crowded.

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